One of the many pleasures in reading William Safire’s New York Times column from 1973-2005 was his year-end “Office Pool,” the last of which appeared in 2009, nine months before his death. The “prediction” essay was a staple in daily newspapers in the 20th century, a quick, and usually lazy (charitably, light-hearted), way to head into the new year. Safire’s was the best. He wrote on Dec. 31st, 2007: “This is the 34th annual office pool in this space, a New Year’s tradition that has become the most excruciating multiple-choice prediction test in world media… Last year, despite a good bet on surging optimism in Iraq, I was mistaken 12 times out of 15. But the audacity of hope springs eternal.”
As it happened, Safire—the last legitimate conservative columnist at the Times—whiffed on predicting the 2008 presidential tickets, opting for Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama vs. John McCain/Michael Bloomberg. Like many, I clipped the “Office Pool,” circled my answers (and chatted about it with my brother Jeff) and would see how I fared during year. Usually, not well.
The only New Year’s Eve prediction column I saw in 2025 was from Joseph C. Sternberg, a member of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board. Compared to Safire it was thin gruel, as Sternberg would probably admit.
For example, Sternberg says November’s midterm elections “will determine the kind of presidential election America gets in 2028.” Go out on a limb, Mr. S!
He also writes, erroneously, I think, that “midterms are usually a snooze for American voters and global observers.” That’s never been true, but especially in the past decade when newspapers/websites, who “cover” politics with more zeal because it’s cheap and can be completed from home, and a cascade of polls and TV advertisements set a new record every two years. As noted previously here, I suspect (at least in early-January) that the Democrats will win the House back, maybe convincingly, strictly because of the economy.
One prediction that every person who follows the media would’ve guessed correctly was that the Times would issue a J6 editorial. Rational reporters/editorialists have let Trump’s out-of-control “rally” recede into history, part of the President’s record, but no longer relevant, since he won again. Just one snippet: “Tragically, America is still living in a political era that began on Jan. 6, 2021. Recognizing as much is necessary to bring this era to an end before it has many more anniversaries… In Mr. Trump’s second term, he has governed as if Jan. 6 never ended. The damage to the nation is severe.” The nation is “damaged” (as always), but J6’s impact is minimal.
It’s been an eventful five years, but the Times is stuck in time. No mention of Joe Biden’s illusory presidency (it’s still not explained who was running the White House as Biden relished his second childhood, and who cashed in), Kamala Harris’ exorbitantly-funded 2024 campaign, or, naturally, the Trump assassination attempt in Butler, PA. Priorities!
So crucial is the fifth anniversary of J6 to the affluent men and women who run the Times’ editorial section that yesterday the editorial was re-posted on its website. I didn’t read it again. But I noticed that Rep. Jamin Raskin (D-MD) had one of his minions write a “Guest Essay” on the subject. More blather, typified by this line: “It’s still very much Jan. 6 in America.” That’s delusional, as Americans who remember the obeisance to Anthony Fauci, vaccination cards, masks and remote school classes, will tell you.
More egregious was Times columnist Jamelle Boule’s latest exercise in inanity, “There Is a Sickness Eating Away at American Democracy.” Boule’s main argument is that entitled people are criminals but aren’t held accountable. He writes: “Our history says that with enough power, and if you’re the right kind of American, you can escape consequences altogether and die a citizen in good standing.”
Fair enough, and Boule had at least 100 examples at hand. But he named only three “right kind of Americans.” Jefferson Davis, the Confederate president who was in federal custody for two years and subsequently valorized by Southern newspapers and lawmakers; Richard Nixon, pardoned by Jerry Ford, even though he was at the heart of “until quite recently, the most notorious scandal in American history,” and was allowed to write books and offer advice on foreign affairs to those who asked; and Trump, the worst of all. A less biased writer might’ve also ticked off George W. Bush (as well as his father and grandfather), Woodrow Wilson, LBJ, Barack Obama, John McCain, Teddy Kennedy and non-elected figures like Al Sharpton, Bill Gates and Colin Powell as examples of those who were Too Powerful To Fail.
—Follow Russ Smith on Twitter: @MUGGER2023